Tariffs may be coming this week. Or they may not. They may cover everyone. Or they may not. So a few thoughts in advance of whatever may or may not happen this week.

In the wake of the realization that Europe must now provide its own security, the EU is launching a Buy European regime to support the effort. For those familiar with EU trade policy, the public discussion of Buy European by European officials represents a radical departure. 

Europeans are scrambling to adjust after the United States by all accounts withdrew the security guarantee it had provided since World War II. Well before then, Europe was already facing headwinds, with slow growth and deindustrialization amidst a lurch to the right. Mario Draghi produced a now-famous report and on February 18, 2025 addressed the European Parliament, insisting that…